2024, II Radovi mladih istraživača, str. 433-440
|
|
Procena podložnosti sliva reke Raške za nastanak bujičnih poplava
Assessment of the susceptibility of the Raška river basin torrential floods
Keywords: floods; FFPI; extreme precipitation; Raška river basin
Sažetak
Prema broju registrovanih bujičnih tokova i posledicama koje izazivaju, bujične poplave su jedna od najučestalijih i najdestruktivnijih prirodnih nepogoda u Srbiji. Njihova pojava, obim i trajanje se potencijalno mogu predvideti pomoću metoda za procenu podložnosti terena. Za nastanak i obim bujičnih poplava ključni su fizičko-geografski parametri istraživanog prostora. Sa klimatskog aspekta, uzročnik su kratkotrajne kiše jakog intenziteta. Prema klimatskim projekcijama, klimatske promene će uzrokovati porast učestalosti ekstremnih padavina, posredno i porast učestalosti bujičnih poplava. Dosadašnja istraživanja su pokazala visoku podložnost slivova reka južno od Save i Dunava nastanku bujica, kao i porast ekstremnih padavina od druge polovine 20. veka. Cilj rada je procena ugroženosti sliva reke Raške nastanku bujičnih poplava primenom Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI). S obzirom da FFPI u proceni ne obuhvata klimatske parametre, u radu su analizirane promene ekstremnih padavina. Prema dobijenim rezultatima FFPI metode, ugroženi tereni za nastanak bujica su klasifikovani u četiri klase. Sliv reke Raške obuhvata jednu od najgušće naseljenih opština u Srbiji, Novi Pazar, koji je često pogođen bujičnim poplavama. Prema postojećem Inventaru, prva katastrofalna poplava zabeležena je 1518. godine. Stoga, rezultati istraživanja mogu koristiti donosiocima odluka, službama za upravljanje u vanrednim situacijama i lokalnom stanovništvu za sprovođenje mera prevencije i adaptacije.
Abstract
According to the registered torrential floods and following consequences, torrential floods are the most frequent and the most devastating natural hazard in Serbia. Their occurrence, extent and duration can be potentially predicted using methods for terrain susceptibility. The geographical features of the research area are decisive for the occurrence and extent of flash floods. From the climate aspect, short-term high-intensity rainfall is the cause of torrential floods. According to climate projections, climate change will lead to an increase frequency of extreme precipitation, and therefore to an increase frequency of torrential floods. Previous studies have shown that the catchment areas south of the Sava and Danube rivers are highly susceptible to flash floods and that extreme precipitation has been increasing since the second half of the 20th century. The aim of this work is to assess the occurrence of floods using the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) in the Raška river basin. Since the FFPI does not include climate parameters in the assessment, change in extreme precipitation were also analyzed. According to the obtained results of FFPI method, endangered areas for flood occurrence are divided into four classes. The Raška river basin includes one of the most densely populated municipalities in Serbia, Novi Pazar, which is often affected by flash floods. According to the Inventory, the first catastrophic flood was recorded in 1955. Therefore, the research results can be useful for decision-makers, emergency management services and the local population in the implementation of prevention and adaptation measures.
|