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Spatial-temporarily variability and discharge trends in the Morača river basin
Prostorno-vremenska varijabilnost i trendovi proticaja u slivu rijeke Morače
aZavod za hidrometeorologiju i seizmologiju Crne Gore, Podgorica, Crna Gora bSerbian Academy of Sciences and Arts - SASA, Geographical Institute 'Jovan Cvijić', Belgrade, Serbia cUniverzitet Crne Gore, Filozofski fakultet, Nikšić, Crna Gora dUniversity of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Philosophy, Pale, Republic of Srpska, B&H
email: golub.culafic@meteo.co.me, a.milanovic@gi.sanu.ac.rs, vujovicfilip@hotmail.com, jelena.golijanin@ffuis.edu.ba
Keywords: Morača eiver; discharges; variability; trend; Mann-Kendall test
Ključne reči: Morača; proticaj; varijabilnost; trend; Man-Kendal test
Abstract
The discharge is the most important element of the water balance and is very important for the study of the variability of a particular watercourse because it represents the reaction of the entire river basin to changes caused by natural or anthropogenic factors. This paper aims to present statistical analyzes of discharge variability in the Morača river basin, up to the profile of the Zlatica hydrological station (42°29'01.64"N and 19°18'25.04"E), which covers the surface of 772.4 km2. The multi-year mean discharge values range from 27.4 m3/s at HS Pernica to 58.9 m3/s at HS Zlatica. Maximum discharges occur during November (Pernica Q=46.7 m3/s) and December (Zlatica Q=112.2 m3/s) and coincide with maximum precipitation in the basin, while secondary maximum occur during April (Zlatica Q =97.8 m3/s and Pernica Q=45.2 m3/s), as a consequence of the air temperature increasing and the snow cover melting on the high mountain areas. Minimum water occurs in August (5.5-7.1 m3/s). The statistical significance of the discharge trend was examined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, and the trend's slope was determined using Sen's slope.. The analysis of the results shows a statistically significant negative change in discharge at HS Zlatica in the autumn season, as well as during October (at a significance level of 95%), while at HS Pernica monthly changes (February, March, September and October) were recorded at a level of low statistical significance (90%). Knowing the basic elements of river regimes variablity is a necessary prerequisite for the optimal and rational use of water resources, such as the Morača River. Therefore, the obtained results represent a good basis for all future water management planning and research.
Sažetak
Proticaj je najvažniji element vodnog bilansa i ima izuzetno veliki značaj za izučavanje varijabilnosti određenog vodotoka, jer predstavlja rekaciju cijelog rječnog sliva na promjene izazvane prirodnim ili antropogenim faktorima. Akcenat u ovom radu je dat na prikazu statističkih analiza varijabilnosti proticaja u slivu rijeke Morače, do profila HS Zlatica (42°29'01.64"S i 19°18'25.04"I), koji obuhvata površinu od 772,4 km2. Srednje višegodišnje vrijednosti proticaja se kreću od 27,4 m3/s na HS Pernica do 58,9 m3/s na HS Zlatica. Maksimumi proticaja se javljaju tokom novembra (Pernica Q=46,7 m3/s) i decembra (Zlatica Q=112,2 m3/s) i poklapaju se sa maksimumom padavina u slivu, dok se sekundarni maksimumi javljaju tokom aprila (Zlatica Q=97,8 m3/s i Pernica Q=45,2 m3/s), kao posledica porasta temperature vazduha i topljenja sniježnog pokrivača u visokoplaninskim predjelima. Minimalne vode se bjeleže u avgustu (5,5-7,1 m3/s). Ispitivanje statističke značajnosti trenda proticaja izvršeno je upotrebom neparametarskog Man-Kendal testa, a utvrđivanje nagiba trenda primenom Senove ocene nagiba linije trenda. Analiza rezultata pokazuje statistički značajnu negativnu promjenu proticaja na HS Zlatica u jesenjoj sezoni kao i tokom oktobra mjeseca (na nivou značajnosti od 95%), dok su na HS Pernica evidentirane mjesečne promjene (februar, mart, septembar i oktobar) na nivou male statističke značajnosti (90%). Značaj poznavanja osnovnih elemenata kolebanja rječnih režima, predstavlja neophodan preduslov optimalnog i racionalnog korišćenja vodnih resursa, kakav je rijeka Morača, pa s toga, dobijeni rezultati predstavljaju dobru osnovu za sva buduća vodoprivredna planiranja i istraživanja.
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