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Spatio-temporal variability of aridity based on rainfall anomaly index: Case study of Bačka (Northern Serbia)
Prostorno-vremenska varijabilnost aridnosti na osnovu indeksa anomalija padavina - studija slučaja Bačke (Severna Srbija)
aUniversity of Priština - Kosovska Mitrovica, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Serbia bUniversity of Novi Sad, Faculty of Science, Serbia cUniveristy of Niš, Faculty of Science, Serbia
email: nikola.milentijevic@pr.ac.rs, milanap@dgt.uns.ac.rs, marko.ivanovic@pr.ac.rs, sanja.obradovic@dgt.uns.ac.rs, milena.j.gocic@gmail.com, natasam@pmf.ni.ac.rs
Project: Ministry of Science, Technological Development and Innovation of the Republic of Serbia (Institution: University of Priština - Kosovska Mitrovica, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics) (MESTD - 451-03-68/2020-14/200123)
Ministry of Science, Technological Development and Innovation of the Republic of Serbia (Institution: Univeristy of Niš, Faculty of Science) (MESTD - 451-03-68/2020-14/200124)
Ministry of Science, Technological Development and Innovation of the Republic of Serbia (Institution: University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Science) (MESTD - 451-03-68/2020-14/200125)
Autori pružaju zahvalnost i za finansijsku podršku Pokrajinskog sekretarijata za nauku i tehnološki razvoj (projekat br. 142-451-3485/2023-01)
Ključne reči: klimatske promene; aridnost; indeks anomalija padavina; prostorno-vremenska varijabilnost; Bačka
Abstract
Recent climate changes represent one of the largest environmental issues and the cause of climate extremes such as drought and aridity. The subject of the paper is the interpretation of aridity conditions in Bačka using the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI). The paper uses monthly and annual precipitation values (1990-2018) from five meteorological stations. The analyzed parameters were taken and calculated based on the Meteorological Yearbooks of the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHSS). The spatial distribution of RAI is presented using interpolation based on QGIS software v3.18. In the case of negative precipitation anomalies (drought events) at the meteorological station (MS) Bački Petrovac, 2000 (-1.74) and 2017 (-1.47) were moderately dry. On the MS Bečej, only 2000 was moderately dry (-1.65). In the case of MS Novi Sad, two years were moderately dry - 2000 (-1.71) and 2011 (-1.29). On the MS Palić, only 2000 was moderately dry (-1.74). On the MS Sombor, 2000 (-1.68) and 2011 (-1.08) were moderately dry. The category normal is represented continuously (from 1991-1998 and 2006-2009). In the case of positive precipitation anomalies (wet events) on MS Bački Petrovac, 2000 was very wet (2.31), while 2011 (1.32) and 2017 (1.95) were moderately wet. At MS Bečej during 2000, there was slightly less humidity compared to MS Bački Petrovac (2.19). On the MS Novi Sad, 1990 (1.32), 1993 (1.20), 2002 (1.14), 2011 (1.74) and 2012 (1.11) were moderately wet. At MS Palić, 2000 belongs to the very wet category (2.34), while 2011 (1.17) and 2012 (1.05) are moderately wet. On the example of MS Sombor, the wettest year was also recorded - 2000 (2.25). The values of moderately wet years range from 1.02 (1990) to 1.44 (2011). The spatial distribution of the index indicates the diversity of climatic conditions in terms of dry and wet events. The presented results can represent the basis for planning regional development policy from the perspective of climate change adaptation measures.
Sažetak
Recentne klimatske promene predstavljaju jedan od najvećih problema sa aspekta životne sredine i predstavljaju uzrok klimatskih ekstrema poput suše i aridnosti. Predmet rada je predstavljanje uslova aridnosti u Bačkoj korišćenjem indeksa anomalija padavina (RAI). U radu su upotrebljene mesečne i godišnje vrednosti padavina (1990-2018) sa 5 meteoroloških stanica. Analizirani parametri su preuzeti i kalkulisani na osnovu Meteoroloških godišnjaka Republičkog Hidrometeorološkog Zavoda Srbije (RHMZS). Primenom interpolacije prikazana je prostorna distribucija RAI na osnovu QGIS softvera 3.18. U slučaju negativnih anomalija padavina (sušnih događaja) na meteorološkoj stanici (MS) Bački Petrovac umereno sušne su 2000. (-1,74) i 2017. godina (-1,47). Kod MS Bečej umereno sušna je samo 2000. godina (-1,65). U slučaju MS Novi Sad dve godine su umereno sušne - 2000 (-1,71) i 2011. (-1,29). Kod MS Palić umereno sušna je samo 2000. godina (-1,74). Na MS Sombor umereno sušne su 2000. (-1,68) i 2011. godina (-1,08). Kategorija normalno zastupljena je u kontinuitetu (od 1991-1998. i 2006-2009). U slučaju pozitivnih anomalija padavina (vlažni događaji) na MS Bački Petrovac veoma vlažna je bila 2000. godina (2,31), dok su 2011. (1,32) i 2017. (1,95) umereno vlažne. Na MS Bečej 2000. godina je nešto manje vlažnosti u odnosu na MS Bački Petrovac (2,19). Kod MS Novi Sad umereno vlažne su 1990. (1,32), 1993. (1,20), 2002. (1,14), 2011. (1,74) i 2012. (1,11). Na MS Palić 2000. godina pripada kategoriji veoma vlažno (2,34), dok su umereno vlažne 2011. (1,17) i 2012. godina (1,05). Na primeru MS Sombor je zabeležena i najvlažnija godina - 2000. (2,25). Vrednosti umereno vlažnih godina se kreću u intervalu od 1,02 (1990) do 1,44 (2011). Prostorna distribucija indeksa ukazuje na diverzitet klimatskih uslova u smislu sušnih i vlažnih događaja. Predstavljeni rezultati mogu predstavljati osnovu prilikom planiranja politike regionalnog razvoja sa aspekta mera adaptacije na klimatske promene.
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